West Virginia University 101 Fine Arts Drive Morgantown Wv 26501
Congressman Alex Mooney has a xv-point lead over fellow Republican incumbent David McKinley among likely voters in West Virginia's newly-formed 2nd Congressional District, according to the latest edition of the MetroNews West Virginia Poll.
Mooney has ridden the strength of an endorsement by Donald Trump, plus the growing population of his base in the Eastern Panhandle.
McKinley has been trying to counter with his own endorsements by Gov. Jim Justice, a Republican, and Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat. McKinley also has been touting benefits of the $1.2 trillion congressional infrastructure beak.
The poll shows Mooney leads 48 pct to 33 pct over McKinley, while GOP candidates Mike Seckman of Due west Union received 3 pct; Rhonda Hercules of Wheeling got 2 percent; and Susan Buchser-Lochocki of Morgantown received 1 percent. Thirteen percentage were undecided.
The poll by Research America Inc. on behalf of West Virginia MetroNews asked preferences amongst 350 probable Republican voters and independents in the current Primary Election.
Rex Repass, president of Enquiry America, analyzed the poll results today on MetroNews "TalkLine" with Hoppy Kercheval.
"One-time president Donald Trump's endorsement of Mooney and likely voters in the Eastern Panhandle appear to be delivering the Republican nomination for West Virginia'due south new 2d district seat to Mooney," Repass stated in accelerate of that radio appearance. "Mooney has a 41 bespeak lead over McKinley amid voters in the Eastern Panhandle."
In addition to Mooney's balloter support in his home area, his pb is statistically significant amidst men, older voters, loftier income voters, and cocky-described conservative voters, Repass added.
A reject in West Virginia'southward population between 2010 and 2020 reduced the state's congressional districts from iii to two, setting up a collision between incumbents Mooney and McKinley in northern counties. The state'southward other Republican congressional incumbent, Ballad Miller, is running for re-election in the redistricted southern counties.
McKinley, a Wheeling resident, has served in Congress since 2011, representing what had been West Virginia's 1st Congressional District. Mooney, a Charles town resident, has been elected for what was the 2nd Congressional District since 2015.
"McKinley has a 16-bespeak lead over Mooney in West Virginia's Northern Panhandle, but non enough to close Mooney's gap in his home area," Repass said.
What does the MetroNews West Virginia Poll in the race for the Republican nomination in Congressional Commune No. two indicate? Rex Repass, Research America, provides those figures to @HoppyKercheval. Lookout: https://t.co/yCFQ3nDJuy moving-picture show.twitter.com/atxRPjmaCf
— MetroNews (@WVMetroNews) May 6, 2022
McKinley appeared with Governor Justice this week for an economic development announcement in Wheeling. Justice, a longtime friend and supporter of Trump, said the sometime president fabricated a mistake with his Mooney endorsement. "This man (McKinley) is the man yous want," Justice said.
Trump, in plow, released a contempo argument in support of McKinley and spoke for Mooney during a rally conducted past telephone. "Nosotros have to brand sure that we vote for this dandy gentleman," Trump said. "A friend of mine, and really a warrior in every sense of the way."
Trump's influence in an Ohio GOP Senate race pushed "Hillbilly Elegy" writer J.D. Vance from a straggling position into an Election Day winner this week.
Mooney and McKinley appeared together in studio Thursday to hash out problems ranging from infrastructure to immigration policy to free energy on "Talkline."
Mooney has been dogged by congressional ethics investigations of his apply of campaign and taxpayer funds. He denied wrongdoing during the "Talkline" appearance this week.
"Await the Office of Congressional Ethics, the reports are full of misrepresentations and unsupported allegations. I'm not going to get into every detail," he said, "simply I am working with the ethics committee, the standing ethics commission. I'thousand cooperating with them to respond their questions about all these things."
Republicans are widely expected to have a major electoral advantage to have dorsum Congress this yr. The current Republican congressional leader, Kevin McCarthy, has been in waves of contempo controversy.
Both McKinley and Mooney said on "Talkline" that their vote would be for McCarthy as House Speaker if they are elected to return to Congress, although Mooney kept options open.
"Yes," McKinley said of McCarthy, a Republican from California.
"Probably," said Mooney. "Depends on who else is running."
More than polling factors in the race betwixt McKinley and Mooney:
- Mooney has a 41 percent betoken lead over McKinley in the Eastern Panhandle, the area surrounding Mooney'due south domicile in Charles Boondocks.
- McKinley's lead in the Northern Panhandle, his home surface area, is only xvi pct points.
- Mooney's other areas with significantly more support over McKinley include: a) males (55% support Mooney), b) voters historic period 50+ (55% support Mooney c) bourgeois voters (55% support Mooney, and d) high income voters (69% support Mooney)
- In addition to Northern Panhandle voters, McKinley'south greatest area of force is amid young voters anile xviii-29 (53% support McKinley.)
- The number of registered voters in the poll who say they are probable to vote on May 10 is significantly greater in the Eastern Panhandle than in the Northern Panhandle.
- Chore approval ratings are often a surrogate for electoral support. That is, the college the job approving rating, the more than likely that function seeker will win. Mooney's job approval rating is 57 percent. McKinley's job approval rating is 46 percent. Governor Justice has the highest approval rating among names tested in the 2nd Congressional District. The everyman job blessing rating is for President Joe Biden at 9 percentage.
Methodology Argument
Results of this edition of MetroNews West Virginia Poll are based on interviews conducted between April 28 and May 4, 2022 with a sample of 350 Westward Virginia registered Republican and Contained voters who said they would opt for a Republican Election for the May 10 primary election in the country'due south newly formed Second Congressional Commune. Information collection was completed online and by telephone with purchased sample of registered voters who are likely to vote in primary elections.
Likely voters in all counties representing West Virginia'southward new 2d Congressional Commune were sampled, screened for nigh certainty that plan to vote in next week's primary election.
When using sample of registered voters and hybrid data collection (online and telephone) it is not appropriate to apply a probability-based margin of error to interviews completed. All the same, applying statistical tests of significance to each question asked at the 95 percent confidence interval yields an overall statistical error of +/- 5.2 per centum points based on the 350 interviews. The 95 percent confidence interval varies by question.
The purpose of the West Virginia Poll is to provide a snapshot of opinion and timely voter views in the Mountain Land. The media sponsor of the West Virginia Poll is MetroNews Radio Network.
The MetroNews West Virginia Poll is a not-partisan survey of public stance conducted by Enquiry America Inc. The West Virginia Poll has been directed by Rex Repass and conducted periodically since Jan 21, 1980. The name The West Virginia Poll is a trademark owned by Research America Inc; all rights reserved.
Source: https://wvmetronews.com/2022/05/06/west-virginia-poll-in-battle-of-congressional-incumbents-mooney-leads-by-15-over-mckinley/
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